Probability of Success: How Do We Rate It?

    Probability of Success: How Do We Rate It?

    If people realized
    fully of the real possibilities they have of win the lottery, they would probably never buy one
    ticket throughout their life. However, the tickets continue to be
    sold and for those who manage this market it is almost like having one in their hands
    money printing machine.

    The truth is that all lotteries
    exploit a common cognitive trait, our tendency to evaluate chance of success according to
    simpler examples that come to mind. This, along with obviously the
    despair of people, it is the perfect stimulus that pushes to buy the
    ticket. As if to say, since the
    organizers of the various lotteries show only and exclusively the winners
    and they forget (deliberately) to talk about the losers too, which are the vast majority
    our mind is focused only on those who have won. So,
    we subconsciously assume that we have more opportunities to win than to
    lose. The interesting thing is that this stretch
    cognitive not only applies to the lottery but also to many other spheres
    of life, and also to our work. For example, it was
    proved that doctors who diagnosed two consecutive cases of
    bacterial meningitis, they believe they see the same symptoms in the patient as well
    following, even when this has only a trivial common influence. This
    it happens even if the doctors themselves are aware that it is unlikely
    diagnose three consecutive cases of the same disease. How will we die? In recent years they have come true
    numerous studies with the aim of evaluating the attitude of people in
    as to the chance of success,
    that is, that a certain expected event may occur, on the basis of the
    personal cognitive trait that leads us to believe that the
    simpler possibility. In practice, in one of these studies, the
    people to answer a few questions to determine which was theirs
    belief about the possible causes of their future death. For example, some researchers
    Ohio State University, they found that people believed that
    it would have been more likely for them to die murdered in the street rather
    than stomach cancer. In fact, we have five times that
    likely to die of stomach cancer than to be murdered, but since
    since these violent acts have a greater media impact, the
    our mind tends to unknowingly change statistics. An earlier study carried out in
    1995 also confirms this trend. On that occasion he wondered if there
    were more opportunities to be attacked by a shark or to die in a
    plane crash. It should be emphasized that at that time in the US there was a real one
    and national panic due to some shark attacks mentioned in the
    press had spoken widely, so that most people thought
    it was more likely to die attacked by one of them when it is not. In practice, when a person we know
    is the victim of a car accident, we immediately consider that the roads
    they are less sure even if in reality it is only a provoked attitude
    from the emotional impact of the moment. At the same 
    way, while the more striking the event the more we will be inclined to distort
    the real opportunities for this to occur.
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