In recent years, online betting websites have grown exponentially. This is completely normal in times of crisis, because people like the idea of being able to hold on to an illusion, the idea that overnight can change their lives.
I must say that I have never bet because I don't believe in luck and I think that money must be earned by working, but this study conducted by some Korean researchers is particularly interesting so I decided to mention it, maybe it can be useful to those who are used to betting.
How to bet and have a better chance of winning?
Well, these researchers looked at roughly 1,9 billion bets related to football and baseball games. Their goal was to compare the success rate between those who predicted match results and those who only predicted scores.
What did they discover? When people bet on the score they won 42,2% of the time, when they bet on the results they won 44,4% of the time. Obviously, there is no substantial difference in these data but we can speak of an anomaly from a statistical point of view. Therefore, the researchers decided to replicate a typical situation in which a bet is made in the laboratory.
Basically, the people involved had to make predictions about the World Cup, the European Cup and the Asian Cup. Half of the participants were asked to predict the scores, while the other half were asked to bet on the results.
This time around, the results were sharper. For example, in the matches of the European Cup, those who bet on the scores won 47,8% of the cases, while those who bet on the results won 53,5% of the cases. In other words, it is easier to predict the results than the scores and in this case the chances of winning are increased by 5%.
But it is interesting to understand why this happens. Researchers think it is because when we try to predict scores we focus on specific factors and this confuses us, creates a more complex picture in our mind that is more difficult for us to manage.
Conversely, when we simply try to predict an outcome, we focus on more global factors, which allow us to consider what really affects it. For this reason, you are more likely to win if you bet on the results.